TORONTO (AP) — This year, Canada’s ruling Liberal Party seemed set for a significant election loss. However, with Donald Trump declaring an economic offensive and threatening to absorb Canada as a 51st state, the Liberals and their fresh prime minister might find themselves in a favorable position after all.
Meanwhile, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is basking in a surge of public support due to her response to Trump’s tariff threats. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who visited the White House last month, faced unexpected challenges, but returned to Europe to a hero’s welcome. Some suggest Emmanuel Macron’s recent rise in French polls may correlate with his robust engagement with the new U.S. president in recent weeks.
By announcing that the United States will prioritize its own interests, Trump has disrupted decades of established international order. In just weeks, he has prompted leaders from around the globe to scramble to reinforce their economies, alliances, and defenses against threats from Russia, all while trying to stabilize their domestic standings.
“Trump is like a raging freight train igniting everything in its wake,” remarked Kory Teneycke, a conservative Canadian campaign director. “It’s not just a big deal; it’s almost the only factor influencing voters right now.”
It seems everyone is reacting to Trump. Yet, nearly two months after his wave of executive actions, threats, and trade disputes, some leaders are steadying their stances with resilience and strategy — though it remains unclear if this will alter the Trump administration’s tactics.
Scrambling and Dread in Europe
For many in Europe, Trump’s abandonment of three years of support for Ukraine following Russia’s invasion was perceived as a critical threat. His unfounded claim that Zelenskyy instigated the war — coupled with the drubbing of Zelenskyy in the Oval Office on February 28 — undermined nearly 80 years of cooperation with Europe predicated on the understanding that the U.S. would defend these nations from Russian aggression post-World War II. Trump also restricted Ukraine’s access to intelligence and military support.
This clash exposed the limitations of a concerted effort by America’s allies to reshape Trump’s determination to cease Russia’s offensive, even if the conditions are unfavorable to Ukraine. A significant portion of Europe found this approach unappealing.
European leaders swiftly took to social media to support the Ukrainian president. Proof of this solidarity was evident the next day as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer warmly embraced Zelenskyy in a public display of unity at 10 Downing Street. Historian Robert Bothwell suggests this could lead to an unexpected result: “Strangely, NATO may evolve into a sort of anti-Trump coalition,” he argued. “He’s effectively fostering that.”
This shift could materialize quickly; some European leaders are recognizing that Trump is leaving them vulnerable to Russia.
For years, Trump has criticized NATO allies for their insufficient contributions to Europe’s defense. Similarly, Macron has advocated for a more self-sufficient and powerful Europe since his election in 2017, insisting that the EU must act decisively on the global stage. Immediately following his February 23 election as Germany’s likely next chancellor, Friedrich Merz stated his “absolute priority” would be for Europe to “truly attain independence from the U.S.”
Anticipated moves by Germany, the largest economy in Europe, indicate a potential easing of restrictions on borrowing for defense purposes under its prospective coalition government. Recently, EU member states endorsed a plan to relax budget constraints, allowing willing nations to ramp up military expenditures. Nonetheless, Europe’s leaders found themselves sidelined from discussions in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Tuesday aimed at ending the conflict.
Canada’s Conservatives Struggle
Canada’s federal Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, were on course for a substantial victory in this year’s federal elections — until, according to Teneycke, Trump’s barrage of trade threats and annexation rhetoric disrupted their momentum.
“Having JD Vance express support for you or Elon Musk tweet positively about you is political poison. Every time Musk compliments Pierre Poilievre, his approval drops by a point or two,” he remarked. “Just stop. You’re not helping.”
Teneycke previously directed the campaign for Doug Ford’s victorious Progressive Conservative party in Ontario, where Ford capitalized on a strong stance against Trump.
Trump’s trade war and threats of making Canada the 51st U.S. state have outraged Canadians, who express their displeasure by booing the American anthem at NHL and NBA games. Some are canceling trips to the U.S., while many are turning away from American products. This rising wave of Canadian nationalism has bolstered the Liberal Party’s prospects in an impending parliamentary election, as Liberal approval ratings have been climbing.
The shift in public opinion is striking. In mid-January, a Nanos poll showed the Liberals trailing the Conservatives and Poilievre by 47% to 20%. However, the latest poll indicates that the Liberals are now just two points behind. This came just before the party appointed former central banker Mark Carney to succeed Justin Trudeau.
“They are making a remarkable comeback,” Bothwell stated. “It’s impressive, and it’s all due to Trump.”
Bothwell argues that Trump’s appeal stems largely from a kind of American nationalism that he describes as “offensive to all foreigners.” He observes that Canadians are rallying together as if under wartime conditions.
“If someone kicks sand in your face and then spits on you, it’s only natural to react,” Bothwell explained. “This is a response to provocation — and a serious one at that.”
Mexico Takes a Less Confrontational Approach
In Mexico, Sheinbaum celebrated with her constituents at a massive rally on Sunday after various American tariffs were postponed.
While she currently enjoys robust support, questions linger about whether the 62-year-old president’s popularity would dwindle if the Mexican economy suffers due to U.S. tensions. “The president will overcome everything,” asserted Mariana Rivera, a 40-year-old social activist proudly waving a large Mexican flag.
Despite initial doubts about whether Sheinbaum could replicate her predecessor’s amicable rapport with Trump, she has consistently garnered over 80% approval and maintained a stable peso, leading even her detractors to concede her adept handling of the tumultuous atmosphere.
“She’s a leader who has adopted a very rational and reasonable strategy, focusing on collaboration … in contrast to Trudeau’s more confrontational rhetoric,” said Palmira Tapia, a political analyst in Mexico.
Sheinbaum has emphasized her intention to manage interactions with Trump with a “cool head,” particularly regarding his threat of 25% tariffs, which economists warn could plunge Mexico into economic downturn.
In an effort to placate Trump, Sheinbaum has mobilized 10,000 troops to the U.S.-Mexico border, ramped up crackdowns on fentanyl, and sent 29 cartel leaders to face justice in the U.S. While Canada and China quickly retaliated against last week’s tariffs, Sheinbaum chose to remain patient. Following Trump’s announcement to delay the tariffs, she transformed a scheduled march into a “festival.”
What will the consequences be? Trump’s unpopularity in Canada has reached such levels that even hockey legend Wayne Gretzky, once a close friend of Trump’s, has become a pariah in his homeland.
“This is Wayne Gretzky — the most recognizable and celebrated Canadian in my lifetime. Since the early 80s, he has epitomized Canadian identity like beavers and maple syrup,” Teneycke remarked. “He’s an absolute icon, yet he would be booed if he stepped onto any NHL ice in Canada today because of the Trump situation. It’s astonishing.”
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Rob Gillies manages Canada coverage for The Associated Press. AP correspondents Laurie Kellman in London and Megan Janetsky in Mexico City contributed to this report.
