Newsletter: Global Growth Looks Soft, Another Snag in Trade Talks – Real Time Economics

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Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to assist you through crucial developments in the worldwide market. You may send us your queries, comments and tips from responding to the email.

2, Three, Four

Before we turn to the U.S., let us have a peek in the world’s second-, third- and – fourth-largest markets: 

China is showing fresh signs of weakness. Readings of economic expansion slowed further in October, together with disappointing numbers in industrial output, home consumption and fixed-asset investment. Taken together, the statistics add to proof that China’s market is widely slowing, Liyan Qi, Grace Zhu and Bingyan Wang report. “Not only were last month’s information helpless, but farther weakness lurks ahead,” Capital Economics’s Julian Evans-Pritchard explained.

Japan’s economy grew at the slowest pace per year since the U.S.-China commerce dispute and frictions with South Korea weighed exports. Things might not get better fast: A sales tax growth on Oct. 1 is anticipated to hit consumer spending, weakness in China is controlling demand for Western products, a dispute with South Korea is crimping tourism plus a strong typhoon that struck the nation in October is very likely to moist intake in the fourth quarter. Daiwa Securities’s Mari Iwashita expects the market to psychologist by averaging 2.1percent in the last quarter of 2019, Megumi Fujikawa reports.

Germany narrowly skirted a downturn in the next quarter. Gross domestic product rose by an adjusted 0.1percent in the last quarter, after a 0.2% fall from the second. Consumption, exports and construction supported the small turnaround. The prognosis:”There are still very few reasons to become too cheerful. Even though a growth catastrophe still appears unlikely, a lengthier period of stagnation remains in the cards,” ING’s Carsten Brzeski said.

Taken as a whole, recent signs from the international market do not provide much hope of a substantial world-wide rally shortly.


The U.S. producer-price indicator for October is forecast to rise 0.3percent in the previous month. (8:30 a.m. ET)

U.S. jobless claims are anticipated to climb to 215,000 from 211,000 per week before. (8:30 a.m. ET)

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell appears before the House Budget Committee in 10 a.m. ET.

Also lined up to the Fed: Chicago’s Charles Evans discusses in a fintech summit at 9:10 a.m. ET, Vice Chairman Richard Clarida speaks to the central bank’s strategic inspection at 9:10 a.m. ET, San Francisco’s Mary Daly provides welcoming remarks in an Asia economic policy summit in 11:45 a.m. ET,” New York’s John Williams discusses at an Asia economic policy summit in 12 p.m. ET and St. Louis’s James Bullard speaks about the economy and financial policy in 12:10 p.m. ET.


Still another Hiccup in Trade Talks

Trade talks involving the U.S. and China have struck on a snag over farm buys , Chao Deng, Lingling Wei and William Mauldin report.

  • President Trump a month said China has agreed to purchase around $50 billion of ore, pork and other agricultural goods in the U.S. yearly.
  • China is leery of placing a numerical devotion in the text of an arrangement. Beijing would like to get flexibility if exchange tensions escalate. “We can always prevent the buys if matters get worse ,” said one Chinese .
  • The dispute over farm buys is just one of many problems which have delayed completion of this restricted trade accord. Both sides will also be at odds over whether–and by how much–that the U.S. would agree to lift tariffs on Chinese imports, Beijing’s central requirement.
  • Chinese officials have resisted U.S. requirements for a powerful enforcement mechanism and also curbs about the forced transfer of technologies.


Negative Ideas

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told lawmakers the central bank saw little desire to decrease interest rates farther after making three discounts as July, Nick Timiraos reports.

  • “Obviously , in case improvements emerge which cause a substance reassessment of the outlook, we’d respond appropriately,” Mr. Powell told Congress’s Joint Economic Committee on Wednesday.
  • President Trump again this week criticized the Fed for maintaining rates too high and stated he envied countries in Europe who have speeds below zero:”I need a number of that cash.”
  • Mr. Powell said quite negative and low rates observed elsewhere”might not be suitable for our market.”
  • Not one of those lawmakers about the committee, which consists of 10 House members and 10 senators, joined Mr. Trump in simplifying the Fed.


The European Central Bank, Switzerland, Japan and Denmark all preserve negative coverage prices. Sweden has had sufficient . The Scandanavian nation’s central bank following month is expected to loosen them concerns about distortions in the financial system, Caitlin Ostroff reports.

No Worries

Something that the Fed does not need to worry about right now: inflation. The consumer-price indicator –that measures the prices of normal products and services–increased 1.8percent from a year earlier in October. Core costs, excluding often volatile energy and food groups, were up 2.3% over the entire year. The most recent statistics show overall cost pressures remain moderate, Amara Omeokwe reports.

When I’d a Trillion Dollars, I’d Be Rich

The U.S. budget gap climbed 34percent in the first month of this financial year as national spending outpaced earnings growth, pushing the 12-month deficit last $1 trillion for first time since February 2013. Annual shortages have been rising since 2016, despite a period of reduced unemployment and solid economic expansion, as tax cuts enacted 2017 weighed federal revenue set along with a bipartisan budget deal boosted national spending amounts, Kate Davidson reports.

Brand New Cadillac

It isn’t only the government borrowing. Americans are carrying out more loans for automobiles , a signal lower rates of interest and a decadelong financial growth are encouraging big-ticket purchases. Auto-loan originations increased to $159 billion in the next quarter to the next greatest amount on record, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Automobile debt today accounts for almost 10percent of total household debt, up from approximately 6 percent once the recession ended in mid-2009, Sarah Chaney reports.


Tesla’s following mill is going to be in Germany, not Britain. Why? “Brexit [uncertainty] made it too risky to place a Gigafactory from the U.K.,” Tesla CEO Elon Musk advised U.K. motoring magazine Auto Express.

Global warming will start creeping into more economical predictions . “More immediately, based on our analysis the two °C of heating anticipated by 2050 at a high emissions scenario could incur costs of between 2.5%-7.5% of global GDP, with the worst affected nations being in Africa and Asia. Therefore, while more than a 10-year horizon that the prices seem unlikely to become significant enough to influence our predictions, the window of indiscernibility appears to be closing quickly,” Oxford Economics economist James Nixon writes in a study report.


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