UJ
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President Donald Trump is bracing for yet another tumultuous week in his trade wars, with a pressing need to calm the escalating tensions with China before it severely impacts the US economy.
So far, Chinese President Xi Jinping is resisting US calls to engage with Trump for a potential “deal” following the imposition of 145% tariffs by the United States, leading to an anticipated direct clash.
This scenario has left Trump reassuring Americans of his “great relationship” with Xi, claiming it will prevent a crisis, yet he finds himself unable to initiate dialogues, creating a standoff that could potentially disrupt the stock markets once again and bring hardship to many Americans.
Amidst this uncertainty, Trump appears to be embracing the confrontations he has initiated, receiving a standing ovation as he enjoyed a UFC event in Florida on Saturday night. The president, who portrays himself as a political brawler, declared the warm reception to be “somewhat legendary,” suggesting that “we’re doing a good job.”
However, the strife with China presents a genuine confrontation with considerably greater potential risks.
The stakes are high because the economies of the US and China are deeply interconnected. The US depends on China for a variety of essential goods, including consumer electronics, rare earth minerals necessary for electric vehicles and military tech, pharmaceuticals critical for healthcare, and basic necessities such as clothing. Additionally, US agricultural exports to China, like soybeans and sorghum, are crucial for the livelihoods of American farmers, yet the costly tariffs imposed on both sides threaten to decimate trade.
A full-blown trade conflict could be disastrous for both parties, with American consumers facing shortages and rising prices. Some analysts argue that China, with its autocratic government, might be willing to endure significant pain domestically to avoid conceding in what could shape up to be a pivotal battle against the US.
Trump’s ability to engage in strategic long-term negotiations was called into doubt when he abruptly halted reciprocal tariffs on numerous countries for a duration of 90 days last week, reacting to indications of a looming financial crisis. This retreat will have drawn close scrutiny in Beijing. In an effort to manage one difficult issue, Trump escalated another—imposing the 145% tariffs on China as a means to preserve his image.
As the situation deteriorates, more confusion was added by the White House, which on Friday night exempted Chinese-made smartphones and computers from the highest tariff rates, seemingly acknowledging that exorbitant taxes on these products could severely hurt both the tech industry and American consumers.
However, by Sunday, the administration clarified that such items would still face new tariffs, albeit at reduced rates in the upcoming weeks, further spotlighting its seemingly erratic and spontaneous policymaking, which has consistently unsettled markets.
“NOBODY is getting ‘off the hook’ for the unfair Trade Balances, and Non-Monetary Tariff Barriers that other Countries have used against us, especially not China which treats us the worst!” Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday. “There was no Tariff ‘exception’ announced on Friday. These products are subject to the existing 20% Fentanyl Tariffs, and they are just moving to a different Tariff ‘bucket.’ The Fake News knows this, but refuses to report it,” he continued.
Once again, the administration is asserting that its abrupt decisions and mixed messages were part of a deliberate strategy all along.
“This is just another great example of how President Trump had a detailed plan from the beginning that’s being executed exactly as directed,” said White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures.” He elaborated on the administration’s reasoning that these items are crucial to US national security and therefore demand a unique approach for “reshoring” their manufacturing.
The administration maintains that its approach is yielding results, citing that numerous nations impacted by the now-suspended reciprocal tariffs are eager to offer significant concessions to Trump to alleviate American pressure.
The White House is applying a similar strategy towards China, hoping that the strength of the US economy will compel Xi to address longstanding issues, including market access, intellectual property theft, and a large trade deficit that Trump argues is evidence of China’s exploitation of the US.
“It’s kind of almost a two-world system. There’s a process about China, and that’s very, very nascent … and then the process for everybody else,” remarked Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, during his UJ appearance on “State of the Union” on Sunday. “So the process for everybody else is orderly, it’s clear. People are coming to town with great, great offers.”
Trump’s strategy is a gamble that may overlook the nuanced intricacies of the US-China relationship and the political realities in Beijing. Xi’s ambition to elevate his nation to a position of global dominance is rooted in a belief that the US and its Western allies have historically applied colonial policies to diminish Chinese influence and deny it its rightful status, making it nearly impossible for Xi to be perceived as conceding to what China views as American intimidation.
Nevertheless, the administration has dismissed the concerns that China can retaliate in ways that would severely impact the US. “They’re playing with a pair of twos,” argued Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week on CNBC. He contended that since the US imports a mere 20% of the total value of goods China exports to the US, it would be the latter’s economy that would suffer more in a retaliatory trade conflict.
This rationale and Trump’s confidence that his typical high-stakes tactics, cultivated during his years as a real estate developer in New York, will come under scrutiny in the days ahead.
Should Trump successfully redefine the US-China trade relationship, he would tout a significant success in a new chapter of diplomatic relations with Beijing. For years, presidents from both parties believed that liberalizing China’s previously regulated economy would integrate its rival into a global rule-based trading framework, thereby encouraging political reforms domestically. However, that viewpoint started to shift towards the end of the Obama administration, as Xi’s nationalistic governance intensified the economic and geopolitical rivalry between the two nations.
Trump has argued, with some merit, that increased trade with China has fostered a superpower adversary that US leaders in both parties now consider the primary threat to national security and global influence. At the same time, however, inexpensive apparel and consumer products like iPhones have dramatically improved the living standards of millions of Americans, even as globalization has decimated American manufacturing sectors and created widespread social issues.
In spite of the mounting tensions and impending anxiety in the financial markets this week, Trump’s aides on Sunday defended the president’s tactics, which may risk plunging an economy that was thriving when he assumed office just under three months ago into a recession.
“This is unfolding exactly as we predicted would in a dominant scenario,” stated White House trade advisor Peter Navarro on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” He added: “We’ve got 90 deals possibly pending in 90 days.”
Achieving such a high success rate in finalizing trade deals, which typically require years of negotiation, would be extraordinary—one reason many analysts are skeptical of the administration’s claims regarding offers from foreign nations. There’s a lingering probability that nations like Japan, India, South Korea, and the European Union could extend Trump flashy concessions he can champion as major victories, while fundamentally leaving bilateral trade relations unchanged.
This outcome would imply that one of Trump’s central justifications for the tariff disputes—revamping American manufacturing—would remain unfulfilled. Superficial wins for Trump would also fail to account for the trillions of dollars his actions have erased from global stock markets and the losses he has caused to millions of Americans’ retirement savings.
There are increasing indications that the president’s erratic economic policies are harming his political capital, a situation that will be particularly critical for Republican lawmakers ahead of the midterm elections.
A recent CBS poll indicated that the president’s approval ratings concerning his economic management and inflation control have taken a hit. Currently, 44% of respondents approve of his economic handling, while 56% disapprove, and just 40% approve of his approach to inflation compared to 60% who disapprove. Furthermore, 75% expect at least short-term price increases due to tariffs, with 48% anticipating long-term inflation.
These figures are precarious, especially since the true effects of tariffs have yet to be felt in terms of rising consumer prices. Trump’s wager is particularly precarious as his commitments to reduce food and housing costs formed the cornerstone of his victory over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris last November.
Amid these tense times, one of Trump’s staunch advocates in the Cabinet, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, remains optimistic.
“Donald Trump has the ball. I want him to have it. He’s the right person with it,” Lutnick stated on ABC News’ “This Week.” “He knows how to play this game. He knows how to deal with President Xi. This is the right person for the right role, and I am confident this is going to work out with China.”
Yet, the notion of Trump as a savvy dealmaker, which has been a central element of his political appeal, faces its greatest challenge to date.
