What Trump’s True Objectives Are with Canada

Machias Seal Island is just a small spot on North American maps.

However, this uninhabited, misty isle holds significance due to its position within the “Grey Zone”—a rare international dispute area between Canada and the United States.

Both neighboring nations have long claimed ownership of the island and adjacent waters, where Maine meets New Brunswick, with legal rights over the lucrative local lobster catch.

John Drouin, an American lobsterman with 30 years of experience in the Grey Zone, recounts the frantic struggle fishermen engage in to set their lobster traps at the season’s start. “People have literally lost parts of their bodies; there have been concussions, [their] heads smashed, and so on,” he states.

The injuries stem from fishermen becoming entangled in each other’s lines. One friend of Mr. Drouin lost his thumb after it got caught in a Canadian line, a ‘battle scar’ from the Grey Zone, according to him.

The maritime area of 277 square miles surrounding Machias Seal Island has been a point of contention since the late 1700s. An international court ruling in 1984 established the fishing rights for both the US and Canada in the waters.

This dispute serves as an anomaly within what has otherwise been a solid relationship between the two countries.

However, recent changes suggest a potential shift. US President Donald Trump’s return to the White House, imposing steep tariffs on Canadian imports and proposing ideas of incorporating Canada as the 51st state, has heightened tensions with new flashpoints emerging. The critical question now is, what are Trump’s true intentions regarding Canada?

Cutler, Maine, is the nearest US town to the Grey Zone, featuring just a few scattered homes, one supply store, and for good reason, a lobster wholesaler.

Apart from a few retirees and tourists, the town of Cutler relies heavily on the lucrative lobster population in its offshore waters. For the lobstermen based in Cutler, the uncertainty surrounding the Grey Zone presents a continuous challenge as they lay their traps in the Gulf of Maine to catch lobsters for sale.

During lobster season, the Grey Zone fills up with vessels and buoys marking trap locations. As competition increases and livelihoods are jeopardized, tensions often escalate.

“Do we enjoy it? Not at all,” replies Mr. Drouin, who has fished lobsters in the Grey Zone for three decades. “I will keep complaining about it until I can no longer breathe.”

Other Maine lobstermen, like Nick Lemieux, share their own frustrations, reporting nearly 200 of their traps stolen in recent years, which they attribute to the Canadian fishermen across the line.

“This is our territory, and it’s all we have to work with,” he said. “Actions like this leave a bitter taste with us.”

Americans accuse Canadians of working under more lenient regulations that permit them to catch larger lobsters.

Canadians counter that Americans have higher catch allowances and that they are covertly fishing in their waters.

Meanwhile, Canada’s border officials have claimed that American fishermen have responded to their enforcement measures with threats of violence, leading some officers to refuse duty in the Grey Zone.

Canadian maintenance workers are regularly sent to Machias Seal Island to service their automated lighthouse, a testament to their claimed control over the area. Conversely, Americans refer to the occupation of the island by US Marines during World War I as key evidence of their own sovereignty.

The ongoing dispute seems stagnant. However, Trump’s first term saw limited impact on the warmth of US-Canada relations.

When Trump hosted Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in 2017, he praised the US-Canada bond, highlighting the “special ties” that exceed mere geography.

Nonetheless, his language has shifted dramatically since then.

Recently, Trump has repeatedly referred to Canada as the “51st state” and suggested a willingness to ignite new disputes along the US-Canada border.

In September, he raised the idea of accessing fresh water from British Columbia to alleviate California’s drought: “You have millions of gallons of water pouring down from the north… they have a huge faucet.”

Much further east, the Great Lakes area could emerge as a new battleground, as US officials hinted at withdrawing from environmental agreements with their Canadian counterparts.

Additionally, a library has now become an unexpected flashpoint: designed to straddle the Vermont-Quebec border as a symbol of collaboration, the Haskell Free Library and Opera House was once accessible to residents of both countries.

Recently, though, the US implemented immigration protocols requiring Canadians to pass through customs before entering the library, claiming it was a preventive measure against drug trafficking.

Natural resources have also become a contentious issue. Canada possesses extensive reserves of rare earth metals, gold, oil, coal, and timber—assets Trump values highly.

Though Trump has denied any interest in Canada’s lumber, energy reserves, or manufactured goods, Trudeau allegedly mentioned in a private meeting that he believes Trump’s ongoing interest lies in Canada’s resources.

“I suggest the Trump administration knows very well what critical minerals we hold, and their desire to absorb us as the 51st state may stem from that recognition,” Trudeau reportedly stated, according to CBC.

Canadian journalist Jordan Heath-Rawlings posits that Trump’s intentions regarding Canadian natural resources are serious, hinting that his suggestions of annexation shouldn’t be dismissed lightly.

“He relishes the idea of being associated with a vast landmass,” asserts Heath-Rawlings, emphasizing that the Arctic would likely figure prominently in future resource discussions.

Trump is also dubious about the legitimacy of the US-Canada boundary itself. “If you examine a map, you’ll see they drew an arbitrary line right through it separating Canada from the US,” he stated in March. “A long time ago, someone did this, and it makes no sense.”

These remarks have understandably upset Canadian leaders, who voice concerns over Trump’s aspirations for their nation.

In March, Trudeau accused the US president of aiming for “a total collapse of the Canadian economy to make it easier for annexation.”

Previously, after Trump announced fresh tariffs on Canada, Trudeau remarked: “Trump envisions that one of the easiest routes to annex us would be to absorb our country. This notion is very much a reality.”

If US ambitions towards Canada are indeed a “real” possibility, a central question looms. Why? Why would the US risk its long-standing diplomatic, military, economic, and cultural relationship with Canada, which has lasted over a century?

Some perceive a trend in Trump’s attitude toward Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal that reflects a sweeping change in the U.S. perspective on its role in the world.

This notion was recently articulated by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who suggested that post-World War Two American dominance has been an anomaly rather than the norm.

“Eventually, we would revert to a situation where we have a multipolar world with multiple great powers exerting influence across different regions,” he predicted. “We’re facing that reality now with China and to an extent Russia, along with rogue states like Iran and North Korea.”

According to Professor Michael Williams of the University of Ottawa, if the present Trump administration believes that international dominance is no longer feasible or even desired, it could prompt a retreat from distant skirmishes and European commitments.

Instead, Professor Williams asserts that the US may focus on reinforcing its “territorial core,” thus creating a continental fortress surrounded by the vast Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

“If this is the strategy, one would aim to control key geographic choke points, maximize access to abundant natural resources like those Canada possesses, and advantageously reshore industries whenever viable,” he explains.

Such a geopolitical perspective isn’t groundbreaking. As early as the 1820s, US President James Monroe articulated a new world order which advocated for American and European nations to remain in their hemispheres.

However, this marks a considerable deviation in US foreign policy since the conclusion of World War Two.

Professor Williams concedes that it’s challenging to decipher President Trump’s actual thoughts; a sentiment echoed by John Bolton, who served as Trump’s national security adviser for over a year.

“Trump lacks a defined philosophy,” he explains. “He grasps onto ideas but lacks a coherent strategy.”

Currently, the president seems preoccupied with minerals and natural resources, Bolton posits that engaging the private sector would be better rather than suggesting annexation to a close ally. For their part, Canada has expressed the willingness to partner with US firms for joint mining initiatives.

Both Professor Williams and Bolton agree that regardless of Trump’s underlying motives regarding Canada, the ongoing diplomatic disruption will be notably hard to mend, and the unforeseen repercussions could be significant.

“Trump often claims other parties lack bargaining chips,” points out Professor Williams. “Nonetheless, the more you push individuals back, the higher the chances of discovering they possess cards you didn’t anticipate—ones that they’re inclined to play. And even if you hold the upper hand, the resultant fallout could spiral out of control in undesirable ways.”

Canadians have already opted to boycott US products and cancel winter trips south, impacting tourism communities in Florida.

“We’re not seeking conflict, but Canada is prepared for it,” asserts Heath-Rawlings.

The sentiment of a fractured trust between the US and Canada has been embraced by Canada’s new prime minister, Mark Carney, as elections loom.

“The past relationship we shared with the United States, characterized by deepening economic integration and close military cooperation, has concluded,” he stated recently. “I reject any attempts aimed at weakening Canada, exhausting us, or breaking us apart for American ownership.”

In the 19th century, instances of territorial strife along the US-Canada border were far more common. Americans made multiple unsuccessful attempts to seize Canadian territories during the War of 1812.

In 1844, some American factions suggested employing military force should the UK refuse to concede its Pacific Northwest claims.

The 1859 “pig dispute” featured contested islands near Vancouver and resulted in the unfortunate shooting of a British pig that wandered into an American’s garden.

Such conflicts now seem incapable of being preserved in history books, where the Grey Zone existed as a diplomatic anomaly—a deviation from a peaceful norm amid modern developed and integrated democracies.

Yet now, this tranquility has been disrupted, and uncertainty envelops the trajectories both countries might take amidst turbulent waters ahead.

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