Are you hitting your second serve too quick?
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers evaluation of the Top 10 from the 2019 season uncovers a paradoxical relationship between second serve velocity and the corresponding win percentages. A extra highly effective shot in tennis, particularly with a serve, has at all times been seemed upon as extra fascinating than a slower shot. That perception might not be as set in concrete as we as soon as thought.
The very first thing to start out with is to organise the 2019 year-end Top 10 so as of quickest to slowest with common second-serve velocity.
2019 Year-End Top 10: Average 2nd Serve Speed
|Rating||Player||Average 2nd Serve Speed|
|1||Matteo Berrettini||102.Eight mph|
|2||Alexander Zverev||100.6 mph|
|3||Gael Monfils||99.9 mph|
|4||Dominic Thiem||99.zero mph|
|5||Stefanos Tsitsipas||97.zero mph|
|6||Rafael Nadal||96.Four mph|
|7||Novak Djokovic||96.1 mph|
|8||Roger Federer||95.9 mph|
|9||Daniil Medvedev||95.Eight mph|
|10||Roberto Bautista Agut||93.5 mph|
When you chop the group in half, combining the quickest 5 averages and the slowest 5 averages, one thing eye-opening emerges. The 5 gamers who had the slowest second-serve velocity all climbed larger within the group when analyzing win percentages. The solely participant to be within the main 5 gamers in common velocity and win proportion was Dominic Thiem.
Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Daniil Medvedev and Roberto Bautista Agut owned the 5 slowest averages of the Top 10 ranked gamers in 2019. They mixed to common 95.5 mph for his or her second serve whereas the 5 main gamers averaged proper at 100 mph.
The following desk re-orders the Top 10 with proportion of factors received from second serves in 2019.
2019 Year-End Top 10: 2nd Serve Win Percentages
|Rating||Player||Average 2nd Serve Win %|
|4||Roberto Bautista Agut||55.96%|
The clear sample is that the 5 slowest servers all climbed the ladder to a better place when analysing their win percentages whereas the 5 quickest servers all dropped to a decrease ranking when evaluating mph to win percentages.
Comparison: Five Slowest Second Servers
•Rafael Nadal: Speed = sixth / Win % = 1st
•Roger Federer: Speed = eighth / Win % = 2nd
•Novak Djokovic: Speed = seventh / Win % = third
•Roberto Bautista Agut: Speed = 10th / Win % = 4th
•Daniil Medvedev: Speed = ninth / Win % = sixth
Comparison: Five Fastest Second Servers
•Matteo Berrettini: Speed = 1st / Win % = seventh
•Alexander Zverev: Speed = 2nd / Win % = 10th
•Gael Monfils: Speed = third / Win % = ninth
•Dominic Thiem: Speed = 4th / Win % = fifth
•Stefanos Tsitsipas: Speed = fifth / Win % = eighth
Below are 5 strategic prospects why this dynamic is going on:
1. A sooner second serve will get again to the server sooner, taking time away to arrange.
2. The 5 slower servers are stronger defensively with their Serve +1 forehand and backhand.
3. The returner is “out in front” of the slower second serve, not timing it as effectively.
4. The 5 slower servers have a greater mixture of location to maintain the returner guessing.
5. The 5 slower servers rely extra on spin, course & depth to win second-serve factors.
Performance round second serves is important to reaching the elite stage of our sport. Raw velocity is simply one of many layers that instantly results what number of second-serve factors you win.